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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent also-rans improving together. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still