Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.