A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."